Croatia's midfield craft, Ghana's raw pace, Panama's spoiler potential, and why the 17 June opener in Dallas sets the tone for the whole summer. Here is our match-by-match path to the Round of 32.
England qualified with a perfect record. Eight wins from eight, 22 goals scored, zero conceded. That has never been done before in a European qualifying campaign. Tuchel's side are heavy favourites to top Group L, and the bookmakers have them as short as 2/5 to finish first. But this is England at a World Cup. Nothing is ever straightforward.
The group is a clash of styles. Croatia will try to control you with the ball. Ghana will try to blow past you without it. Panama will try to frustrate you until you make a mistake. Three very different problems across three very different nights, in three very different American cities. Here is how England should navigate each one.
This is the one. The fixture that defines the group. A repeat of the 2018 semi-final that England lost in extra time, and the Euro 2020 opener that England won 1-0 at Wembley. There is history here, and Croatia know how to weaponise it.
The good news for England: Croatia are not the side they were. Modric is 40 now and playing at AC Milan. He is still brilliant, still capable of controlling a game with his positioning and passing, but he cannot do it for 90 minutes the way he once could. Kovacic missed most of the season with Achilles problems at Manchester City. Gvardiol is only just back from a broken shinbone. Both made the squad, but neither arrives in peak condition.
The bad news: Croatia still have the best midfield DNA of any side in the tournament. Modric, Kovacic, Pasalic, Baturina, Petar Sucic at Inter, Luka Sucic at Real Sociedad. They produce central midfielders the way Brazil used to produce wingers. Even if the legs are older, the brains are still sharp. Croatia will try to keep the ball, slow the tempo, and starve England of possession in the middle third. If they succeed, it will feel like a long, uncomfortable night in Dallas.
The key for England: do not let Croatia dictate the rhythm. Rice and Bellingham must win the midfield battle early. If England press high and force Croatia to go long, they take away their greatest strength. If England sit deep and invite Croatia onto them, Modric and Kovacic will pass them dizzy.
There is also the Livakovic factor. Croatia's goalkeeper has a World Cup record in penalty shootouts that borders on heroic, but more importantly he is a commanding presence who organises a disciplined defence. Croatia have reached the semi-finals in two of the last three tournaments. They do not panic in big games. England cannot afford to either.
He is 40 and this is almost certainly his last World Cup. That makes him more dangerous, not less. Modric in a must-win tournament match is one of the most composed sights in football. He will not run past you. He will think past you.
If Croatia are the chess match, Ghana are the sprint. The Black Stars have pace everywhere. Antoine Semenyo, who Manchester City paid a reported 62.5 million for in January after he tore up the first half of the season at Bournemouth, is one of the most explosive wide forwards at this tournament. Inaki Williams at Athletic Club brings physicality and directness. Fatawu Issahaku can beat any full-back one-on-one on his day.
Ghana arrive with problems of their own, though. Mohammed Kudus is out injured. He was the man whose goal sealed qualification against Comoros, and his absence strips the midfield of its most creative force. Carlos Queiroz only took the job in April after Otto Addo was sacked following poor friendly results. The 73-year-old Portuguese coach has had weeks, not months, to shape this team. Fifteen of the 26 players are making their World Cup debut. Queiroz himself described it as the most formidable challenge of his 43-year coaching career.
The key for England: control the transition. Ghana are at their most dangerous when they can break at speed on the counter-attack, with Semenyo and Williams running at stretched defences. If England dominate possession and keep a disciplined back line, Ghana will struggle to create chances from open play. If England are sloppy in possession and turn the ball over in dangerous areas, Semenyo will punish them.
Ghana's qualifying record was exceptional: eight wins from ten, 16 goals scored, one conceded. But their recent form tells a different story, with four defeats in their last five matches before the tournament. The talent is there, but the cohesion under a brand-new manager might not be.
This is also the game where England must be careful of complacency. Ghana reached the quarter-finals in 2010 and were a penalty away from the semi-finals. They know how to turn up on the big stage. And Thomas Partey anchoring the midfield means there is Premier League quality running through the spine of the team.
Pace, power, both feet, and the confidence of a player who has just earned a big move to Manchester City. If Ghana are going to hurt England, Semenyo will be the one holding the knife. Whoever plays left-back for England needs to have a very good night.
The last time England played Panama at a World Cup, Harry Kane scored a hat-trick and it finished 6-1. Panama have not forgotten.
This is only Panama's second World Cup. They qualified through a CONCACAF campaign in which they went unbeaten across eight matches, winning five and drawing three. They are not here to make up the numbers. But they are realistic about what they can achieve. At 35/1 to win the group, the bookmakers have them as clear outsiders, and the honest assessment is that their ambition is to be competitive, collect what points they can, and make life difficult for the teams above them.
Panama will defend deep, defend in numbers, and look to frustrate England into impatience. They are physical, they are disciplined, and they know how to make a game ugly. CONCACAF qualifying is played on pitches and in atmospheres that would test any European side, and Panama have learned to be streetwise.
The key for England: patience and rotation. If England have already qualified, which they should have by this point, Tuchel can rest key players and give minutes to the squad's depth. If England still need a result, patience becomes even more critical. Teams that sit deep and defend in blocks are England's least favourite opponent. The temptation is to force it, to overcommit, to leave gaps at the back. Panama will be waiting for exactly that.
There is also the matter of MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The same ground where Brazil drew with Morocco. By this point in the group stage, the tournament will have its rhythm and England should be settled into theirs. This is a game to win with minimum fuss and maximum squad management, keeping legs fresh for the knockout rounds.
Panama do not have a Modric or a Semenyo. Their danger is the system, not the individual. A well-drilled low block, a willingness to use the dark arts, and a squad of players who will run through walls for each other. Do not underestimate what pride and organisation can do in a dead-rubber that is not dead for them.
Beat Croatia, beat Ghana, beat Panama. Nine points, top of the group, a favourable Round of 32 draw against one of the best third-placed sides from Groups E, H, I, J or K. England arrive in Atlanta for the knockout rounds with momentum and confidence. This is the target.
Draw with Croatia, beat Ghana, beat Panama. Seven points is almost certainly enough to win the group, and a draw in the opener is no disgrace. Croatia drew with Spain in their 2018 group and still reached the final. England drew with Italy in their Euro 2020 opener and went on to reach the final. A solid start, not a spectacular one.
Lose to Croatia, beat Ghana, draw with Panama. Four points would likely be enough for second place and qualification, but it would mean England enter the knockouts as runners-up with a harder draw and less momentum. This is the scenario Tuchel wants to avoid at all costs. Lose the opener and the pressure ratchets up immediately.
Every team at every World Cup says the first game is the most important. In England's case, it is actually true.
Win against Croatia on Wednesday and the group opens up completely. Ghana and Panama are both beatable opponents for a confident England side, and nine points becomes the realistic expectation. The pressure lifts. The squad relaxes. Tuchel can rotate for match three and keep his best eleven fresh for the knockouts.
Draw, and the equation is simple: beat Ghana, beat Panama, top the group. Still very manageable. Still comfortable.
Lose, and suddenly every subsequent match becomes a must-win. The media pressure intensifies. The players tighten up. Ghana sense an opportunity. Panama smell blood. A group that should be comfortable becomes a minefield.
Tuchel knows this. He spent his Champions League career treating group-stage football with maximum respect, and his approach with England has been identical: methodical, disciplined, and laser-focused on winning the group. His qualifying record, eight from eight with zero goals conceded, tells you everything about his mentality.
England have the squad to win this group. They have the manager to win this group. And they have the motivation, after 60 years of near-misses, to make this the summer that changes everything.
It starts in Dallas on Wednesday night. 9pm. ITV1. Come on, England.
Our full predictions special, plus reaction to the opening three days of the World Cup. Both of us are backing England to go all the way.
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